Israel’s two-headed regime likely to paralyze itself

“The fact that he will bring the issue up for a vote does not mean it will be approved,” foreign minister-designate and Gantz’ No. 2 Gabi Ashkenazi told Al-Monitor. The former IDF chief went on, “We believe Netanyahu knows the risks of this move and we are convinced that a serious discussion will be held about it in the cabinet and the prime minister will hear the views of the security agency heads and will weigh all the considerations involved before he takes irreversible steps.”

Blue and White clearly realized that a deal with Netanyahu would not be achieved without the magic word, “annexation.” With it, Netanyahu hopes leave a legacy that overshadows the suspicion, probes and criminal trial that have marred his career.

Gantz and Ashkenazi are also coming under fire from their voters. Several petitions against the agreement have already been presented to the Supreme Court and there is no guarantee that the justices will greenlight the deal in its current form. Some Blue and White voters are angry that Gantz and Ashkenazi are providing Netanyahu with a legal defense. According to an override clause, should the top court void the coalition agreement or bar Netanyahu from serving as prime minister due to his criminal indictment, new elections will immediately be scheduled.

Gantz rejects the criticism out of hand, pointing out that the Justice Ministry will be run by the Blue and White, stemming Netanyahu and his cohorts’ offensive against the state’s law enforcement and legal system. As Blue and White failed to unseat Netanyahu in three consecutive elections, the new plan is to sideline him in several stages. The first stage is giving him an expiration date.

But the convoluted articles of the coalition agreement signal that Netanyahu does not plan to go away. When his term ends, he will become “alternative” prime minister with all the perks of a full prime minister. Should the Supreme Court intervene at that point and rule that he cannot serve under criminal indictment even as an “alternative” prime minister, the government will be dismantled and new elections will be called.

“Netanyahu intends to see through the entire legal process,” a senior Blue and White source told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity. “From the negotiations we conducted with him it is clear that he will stand trial [in May], drag it out as long as possible and if convicted, he will appeal to the Supreme Court, and if need be he will demand a second deliberation by the justices. He is not giving away anything for free.”

Netanyahu’s next major test will come in July. Will the prime minister make good on his pledge to annex some of the Jewish settlements in the West Bank? The key lies in Washington, specifically in the hands of President Donald Trump. July puts Trump four months away from the US presidential elections, not the best time to alienate his evangelical base and reject its dictates. Netanyahu hopes to use the achievement to carve his name in the annals of Israel’s political right. Gantz and Ashkenazi are hoping they can stop him once the price of such annexation becomes clear.

This confrontation will only take place if the above described government is established. Quite a few obstacles await it in the coming weeks, the biggest being Netanyahu’s tendency to renege on agreements he signs.