The Takeaway: January 8, 2020

1. Trump offers Iran cooperation on Islamic State, but diplomacy needs an assist

US President Donald Trump said today that “Iran appears to be standing down” following Iran’s attack on US bases in Iraq, which led to no American or Iraqi casualties. Trump added that the United States “is ready to work together” with Iran to combat the Islamic State (IS) and on “other shared priorities.”

Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif also signaled a pause, tweeting after the missile barrage last night that Iran had “concluded proportionate measures in self-defense” under the UN Charter, adding that “we do not seek escalation or war, but will defend ourselves against any aggression.”

Missiles and nukes: With its attack on Iraq, Iran again showed off its ballistic missile capabilities, to the alarm of the region. The Trump administration has declared that restrictions on missiles need to be part of a new and more expansive nuclear agreement with Iran. Along with the attack on the Saudi Aramco oil processing facilities in September, Iran has now hit two key US regional partners with missiles and drones in just four months. Given Iran’s capabilities, it probably could have targeted Americans in Iraq this week, but didn’t, preferring instead a demonstration effect and a sign of restraint.

Perhaps more alarming, in the long run, is Zarif’s tweet Jan. 5 that Iran will no longer abide restrictions on the number of centrifuges it develops in its nuclear program. With both Iran and the United States retreating from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), or Iran nuclear deal, the prospect of an Iranian nuclear weapons breakout has increased.

Read more: Check out the reporting by Laura Rozen and the Week in Review for recent takes on US-Iran diplomacy.