Egypt seeks alliance with Sudan, Israel to counter Turkish influence in Somalia

On the same day, Roble visited the Turkish military training center, Turksom, in Mogadishu, where he praised the Turkish officers for their high-level training. He said that the center “is a model that brings hope for rebuilding the army.”

In this context, Altaqi Mohamed Othman, a Sudanese writer and analyst, told Al-Monitor that Turkey has resorted to Somalia to compensate for the influence it lost in Sudan following the departure of former President Omar al-Bashir, who was a strategic ally of Erdogan and granted him the Red Sea island of Suakin under his rule.

On Nov. 26, 2017, Erdogan had said that Bashir agreed to hand over the administration of Suakin Island in the Red Sea to Turkey. Observers back then viewed such a step as an attempt to encircle Egypt and undermine its interests in the Red Sea.

Othman added that the departure of Bashir ended the Turkish ambition to control Sudan, which prompted Egypt to approach Sudan and establish military and strategic alliances to preserve Arab security.

On Nov. 14, units of Egypt’s elite Saiqa Force and air force arrived at the Marwa air base in Sudan to participate in the joint Egyptian-Sudanese combat exercises dubbed Nile Eagles – 1, for the first time in the two countries’ history.

Commenting on Egypt joining an alliance with Israel and Sudan, Othman said that Egypt is trying to take advantage of the normalization of Israeli-Sudanese ties to build an alliance that would confront the Turkish ambitions in the Red Sea. He stated, “This alliance does not only involve three parties. It also includes Saudi Arabia, which has relations with Israel, albeit undeclared given the sensitivity of its position.”

US President Donald Trump announced Oct. 23 that Sudan agreed to normalize relations with Israel.

Othman anticipated that this alliance would prove to be strong and successful — given the presence of Israel that fears Turkish and Iranian threats in the Red Sea — in halting the Turkish advances in the region.

Amani al-Tawil, an expert on African affairs at Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies, told Al-Monitor that it is not the first time that Egypt seeks to establish a lobby capable of confronting Turkey, as it had previously cooperated with Saudi Arabia in securing the Red Sea through joint exercises to protect navigation in the Red Sea against any threats. 

She noted that Egypt also inaugurated the Berenice military base south of the Red Sea to counter Turkish threats and ambitions in the region. Tawil believes that Egypt’s efforts to bring in new parties is a good step that will have an effective and powerful impact, particularly since Israel needs to secure the region from any threats in the Red Sea, be they Iranian or Turkish.

Egypt announced Jan. 22 the start of the joint Egyptian-Saudi maritime training exercises dubbed Morgan-16, in the Red Sea, with the aim to boost maritime security in the region and confront any threats.

On Jan. 15, Egypt inaugurated the Berenice military base, which is the largest in the Red Sea and in Africa with a surface area of ​nearly 150,000 feddans (155,000 acres), on the Red Sea coast. The objective is to protect the Arab coasts on the Red Sea from any attacks.

Tawil said that Turkey is seeking to create areas of influence on the Red Sea, given its importance as an main passage for global trade. “Unfortunately Erdogan has taken advantage of Somalia’s poverty and civil war to consolidate his influence by controlling the economic and military aspects [of the country]. This is true particularly since Somalia has enormous oil resources, while Turkey suffers from a scarcity of oil resources. Add to that its distinguished location on the Gulf of Aden and at the entrance to the Red Sea, which makes it an important Turkish target,” she added.

Acting Somali Trade and Industry Minister Abdullah Ali Hassan said during the Turkey-Africa Economic Forum that trade exchange between Somalia and Turkey grew by 37% in the past year, reaching $206 million, compared to $150 million in 2017.

On Sept. 30, 2017, Turkey inaugurated a military base — the largest Turkish military training camp outside Turkey — south of Mogadishu.

Erdogan announced Jan. 20 the start of oil exploration in Somali waters.

Turkey’s energy imports in 2019 amounted to nearly $41.1 billion according to the Turkish Statistical Institute.