Exposure of Israel-UAE ties changes Middle East substantively
Aug 18, 2020
The Israeli-Arab conflict was dominated for decades by an unassailable, clear paradigm: Arab states would never normalize ties with Israel, nor recognize it or conduct any kind of public relationship with it as long as the Israeli-Palestinian conflict was unresolved, or at least significant progress was made toward resolving it. Even the Saudi peace proposal, which morphed into the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative, clearly stipulated this precondition. You will only reap the rewards of normal ties with the Arab world once you recognize this initiative as the basis for negotiations, the Arab League has been telling Israel ever since. Israel never formally responded to the initiative. In 2009, the Saudis, for their part, flat-out dismissed US President Barack Obama’s request for a symbolic goodwill gesture toward Israel of allowing Israeli passenger planes to overfly Saudi airspace on their way to India. This week, according to Israeli sources, Saudi Arabia expressed willingness to permit Israeli overflights en route from Tel Aviv to Abu Dhabi and Dubai.
What has changed since? Has this paradigm been shattered and buried? All indications are that it has, indeed. Not only are the Emirates about to sign a deal establishing official ties with Israel, they are proud of their decision. Not only is the Arab world not condemning the move, many countries are praising it. And in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), rather than griping about the regime’s move, residents are enthusiastic.
As for Israel, not only is it no longer being boycotted and punished as the neighborhood bully, it is now the belle of the ball. Everyone is courting it, trying to catch Israel’s attention, sample the delights of its abundant high-tech, weapons systems, cyber and intelligence capabilities, and, most importantly enjoy the benefits of the White House keys, which Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu keeps close to his chest. In Arab capitals, from the Persian Gulf to the Maghreb, Mossad Chief Yossi Cohen with his 1950s Hollywood-star looks is a prestigious guest. Until now, his visits there were shrouded by heavy censorship. On Aug. 17, he appeared publicly in the Emirates for the first time, not as a jilted lover but as a charming prince openly expressing his feelings for his beloved.
Nonetheless, a caveat is in order. Contrary to the spins that Netanyahu’s people are putting out, the agreement with the UAE — which is not a peace agreement since the countries were never at war — is not really the first time Israel achieves “peace in return for peace.” Netanyahu is boasting of his breakthrough in negating the principle of “land for peace” so despised by the political right, but his claims are hollow. He paid for the agreement with hard currency by having to give up his US-sanctioned dream of annexing lands in the West Bank.
This is a significant strategic concession. Netanyahu and his right-wing allies were already poised at the entrance to Aladdin’s cave and all its riches, prepared for the historic move of imposing Israeli sovereignty over extensive lands considered the cradle of Jewish history — only to have the door slammed in their face.