Intel: US engaging with Libya players for possible demilitarization of Sirte

Turkey’s military and Syrian mercenaries have helped western Libya’s UN-recognized government turn back an offensive launched last year by eastern Libya’s Gen. Khalifa Hifter, who is backed by Russia, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt. Turkey’s intervention, in turn, prompted Hifter’s foreign backers to double down, with Russia sending fighter aircraft and more Wagner Group mercenaries to Libya.

The Tripoli-based Government of National Accord (GNA) is not backing off its threats to press the counteroffensive. Hifter’s foreign patrons have called for a cease-fire but have shown signs of readiness to use force in case the GNA refuses to negotiate — something the United States fears could plunge Libya further into war.

Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi has threatened to militarily intervene if the GNA advances on Sirte, a threat Turkey appears not to take seriously, but the United States does, according to Norland.

What’s next:  US officials may be eyeing a potential foot in the door with Cairo.

Egyptian officials told Norland during his trip to Cairo on Monday that Sisi does not want to see “any kind of military action either from the east or the west of Libya, and that Egypt opposes any kind of attack on Tripoli,” the American diplomat told Ahram Online.

If Cairo’s position is serious, it could offer the United States an opportunity for a coordinated push toward an enduring cease-fire, Norland suggested.

“Hearing those assurances from President Sisi — to the extent that growing confidence can be built around those assurances — I think it could have a very powerful impact on what happens next to stabilize the situation further,” the ambassador said.

Whether Egypt would accept a demilitarized Sirte remains to be seen. Spokespeople for the US State Department and for Egypt’s Foreign Ministry did not return Al-Monitor’s requests for comment by publication time.

Know more:  Fehim Tastekin explores why Hifter’s backers appear so dead-set on keeping Sirte, even at the risk of fighting Turkey.