Israel fears US pushing for interim agreement with Iran

TEL AVIV — Israeli Axios journalist Barak Ravid revealed on Monday that the Biden administration had discussed with European and Israeli counterparts the idea of an interim agreement with Iran. Indirect contacts were initiated, said the Axios report, by the administration in January, conducted mostly by European representatives. Such a deal would see Iran reverting to its previous 60% enrichment level activity in return for a partial easing of sanctions and thaw of some Iranian funds frozen by foreign banks.

“The idea of trying to reach a partial agreement between Iran and world powers attests, first and foremost, to US and Israeli distress over the impasse between the sides, which allows Iran to move toward nuclear breakout capacity in a continuous, creeping and worrying manner,” a senior diplomatic source in the Middle East told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity. “But it shows that the US has no other solution … to postpone the deadline as much as possible — that is, the point of no return at which it will have to consider using force against Iran, or simply accept it as a nuclear power.”

There has been no official confirmation of the report, but its essence is clearly one of the ideas being entertained by the US administration given Iran’s accelerated weapons-grade enrichment. It also underscores yet again the colossal 2018 miscalculation by then-President Donald Trump, under strong pressure by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in pulling the United States out of the deal with world powers on curbing Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

“Withdrawal from the agreement, without having an alternative plan, relying on the Iranians to succumb to pressure and accept a better and longer-term agreement, was a terrible strategic mistake,” a former senior Israeli security source told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity.

The idea of a deal with Iran is being floated against the backdrop of heightened tensions between Israel and Iran and its Hezbollah proxy. The Intelligence Directorate of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) recently issued a strategic warning to the political leadership stating that Israel’s deterrence capacity against its enemies is rapidly eroding.

The assessment attributed the erosion to the deep internal divide over the Netanyahu government’s efforts to weaken Israel’s top court, which have spawned insubordination by IDF pilots and fighters, especially in the reserves. Israeli officials believe this erosion is reflected in Hezbollah’s growing boldness, as manifested in the March 13 explosion at a major crossroads of a bomb believed to have been placed there by an infiltrator from Lebanon. The explosion injured an Israeli driver but could have ended with massive casualties at the busy junction. Officials also point to ongoing consultations between Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah and senior Islamic Jihad figures.

The intelligence assessments regarding Israel’s declining deterrence appear to be falling on deaf ears, as evidenced by Netanyahu’s March 26 announcement that he was firing Defense Minister Yoav Gallant over objections he had voiced to the government’s controversial judicial overhaul, and his subsequent reported decision to freeze Gallant’s dismissal. Netanyahu appears torn between his concern over further international and domestic fallout should he go ahead with Gallant’s termination, as well as the erosion of his control over his government, and the anger of allies demanding that he fire Gallant, including by his influential son, Yair.

In an apparent bid to restore its deterrence vis-a-vis Iran and Hezbollah, Israel has allegedly stepped up its strikes on targets in Syria, according to Syrian state-run SANA news outlet reports. Two Syrian civilians were killed in an aerial airstrike near Damascus early Tuesday, according to Syria’s state media, in the fourth airstrike against Iranian and Iranian-affiliated targets in Syria in less than a week. A drone that infiltrated Israel on Monday, and was brought down, was believed to be of Iranian origin. Israel also brought down another drone on Monday, this one launched by militants in the Gaza Strip. 

Netanyahu has issued warnings in recent days against enemy attempts to take advantage of Israel’s domestic woes. “In recent days we are taking action outside our borders against regimes that support terror and plot our destruction,” he said. But his warnings do not appear to be particularly effective given that hundreds of thousands of Israelis continue mounting protests against his government. He himself appears more concerned about these domestic challenges than external threats.

The deteriorating relationship between Jerusalem and Washington also appears to be emboldening Israel’s enemies. President Joe Biden’s resounding refusal to invite Netanyahu to the White House has reverberated throughout the region. Israel, which for years served as a conduit to the White House for less popular regimes, is becoming an outcast.

This is also evident in Abu Dhabi, Riyadh and Cairo. An Israeli government decision this week approving the establishment of a national guard under the control of hard-line National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir is also causing consternation at home and abroad. And the Jewish activists who called for a biblical-style sacrifice of a lamb on the Temple Mount to mark the upcoming Passover holiday (April 5) only served to exacerbate tensions with the Muslims celebrating the holy month of Ramadan with mass prayers at the site.

Iran is the biggest beneficiary of these developments. It has little reason, so it seems, to fear imminent American-Israeli military action against its nuclear facilities, especially given the open distaste demonstrated by Biden for Netanyahu and his policies.

The erosion in Israel’s standing and Iran’s rising fortunes are also reflected in a certain distance between Israel and its allies in the Gulf, especially in light of the accelerated rapprochement by Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain with Tehran. Netanyahu, whose popularity has always been fueled by his determined stand against Iran and its nuclear program, is now liable to be credited both for Iran’s achievement of nuclear capability and the collapse of Israeli deterrence in the Middle East.