Netanyahu plays dangerous game as extremist bloc grows stronger

Judging by recent polls, there is a reasonable chance that Israel’s next government will be controlled by the some of the most radical elements ever to populate Israeli politics, with Knesset member Itamar Ben Gvir leading the pack. Former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, to whom Ben Gvir owes much of his political rise, is now dependent on the head of the Jewish Power party for his potential comeback in the Nov. 1 elections.

Ben Gvir is running on one ticket with the Religious Zionism Party, led by Bezalel Smotrich. Polls show the party winning 14 Knesset seats out of 120, almost three times the number predicted for the Labor Party, and two or three seats more than the National Unity alliance led by two former military chiefs (Defense Minister Benny Gantz and Gadi Eizenkot), a justice minister (Gideon Saar) and other former senior officers and officials.

Such results for radical Smotrich and Ben Gvir would prompt concerns around the world and in the region, particularly in Washington (American officials have already indicated as much), but the one who should be most troubled is Netanyahu, whom this group will hold hostage.

Netanyahu, fearful of the damage his affiliation with Ben Gvir could cause among less radical voters, has been careful to avoid public appearances with him. At a ceremony Oct. 18 marking the Succoth holiday, Netanyahu’s people made sure Ben Gvir stepped off the stage before Netanyahu got on.

It is unclear whether this humiliation served Netanyahu with more moderate voters, but it certainly leveraged support for Ben Gvir.

The man who has described himself as a disciple of the late Rabbi Meir Kahane, whose Kach movement was banned in Israel over its racist messages and who until two years ago displayed a photo on his living room wall of Baruch Goldstein, the settler who massacred dozens of Muslim worshipers in Hebron, is now a hero to thousands of Israelis. The young thug who boldly threatened late Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin shortly before his 1995 assassination is now a popular television studio guest, enjoying a star-like status among young Israelis.

His surge in the polls is prompting questions about the future of Israeli society. Ben Gvir himself may be a passing phenomenon, as other charismatic politicos have been in the past, but his popularity is clearly an expression of the ongoing radicalization of the Israeli public, which has despaired of peace and of failed negotiations with the Palestinians and of the grim outcome of Israel’s pullout from the Gaza Strip and rise of the Islamist Hamas in the enclave.

It’s less clear what kind of government Netanyahu would form if he finally achieves the 61-seat Knesset majority that eluded him in the four previous elections since 2019.

The polls that Netanyahu has commissioned give him an average of 60.5 seats. If he achieves his coveted goal, Netanyahu will find himself dependent on the probably two-digit Knesset seats that Smotrich and Ben Gvir are expected to produce. For the once-pragmatic leader who for years distanced himself from political and military adventurism, such an outcome would have been a nightmare. For today’s Netanyahu, desperate to stop his corruption trial by gaining power and dismantling the law enforcement and justice system, it could mean redemption.

As election day nears, political pundits have pointed to an unprecedented development. Netanyahu, who has in the past poached voters from the smaller parties to the right of his Likud during the last leg of campaigning, is now vulnerable to the same strategy by Ben Gvir. He entered the race with 35 seats for his Likud and is now down to 30. The twin faces of Israel’s radical right started out with seven seats in the polls and are now up to 14. Netanyahu continues to weaken as the extremist bloc grows stronger, and the tail could well wag the dog after the voting is done.

The Religious Zionism Party’s hold on Netanyahu was clear this week in its presentation of a package of deep reforms that it termed a “law and justice” platform, drastically reducing judicial authority. It’s no coincidence that they eliminate “breach of trust” from the penal code — the very charge of which Netanyahu stands accused in all three of the cases, along with a bribery charge in one of them.

Netanyahu would therefore face a dilemma if he does break the 61-seat barrier. Will the master politician who always made sure to include centrist and even left-wing parties in his governing coalitions now form the most radical government in Israeli history?

Netanyahu always leaned toward the middle of the political map in the past. At various times he brought moderate politicians on board such as former Prime Minister Ehud Barak, former Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni and centrist Yair Lapid (the incumbent caretaker prime minister) to avoid being at the mercy of radical right-wing whims. This time, his options are limited.

Lapid and Gantz have repeatedly declared that they would never join a unity government with Netanyahu if he achieves a majority. Their claims are credible. Gantz joined Netanyahu after the 2020 elections only to find himself almost out of the political game shortly thereafter. Lapid would also likely be wiped out should he go with Netanyahu.

On the other hand, imagine the following scenario: Netanyahu turns to Gantz or Lapid and urges them to save Israel from the extremists by putting aside their grievances and entering into a broad-based government with him. Could they refuse?

Does Netanyahu have an interest in making such a proposal? The original Netanyahu did. Netanyahu of 2022? Probably not.