Panic downriver as Ethiopia’s mega dam hits first-year target

Egyptian Minister of Irrigation Mohamed Abdel-Aty said in a July 15 press statement that Egypt does not receive an appropriate share of the Nile’s water, saying Egyptians are concentrated along the river because of water scarcity, unlike the other Nile Basin countries. He stressed that the Ministries of Irrigation and Agriculture are cooperating to manage water consumption and raise efficiency.

Abdel-Aty said in a previous press statement Sept. 9, 2019, that even a 2% decrease of Egypt’s water share will make 200,000 feddans (more than 200,000 acres) of farmland unarable and jeopardize Egyptian food security.

Former adviser to the Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation Dia al-Qawsi told Al-Monitor, “Egypt’s estimated 55.5 billion cubic meter quota has not changed since 1959 despite the population increase. … The entire Egyptian population is now threatened by the GERD. Egypt’s water quota should not be affected.”

Qawsi added, “A 1% decrease in Egypt’s water share will lead to a loss of 100,000 feddans of Egypt’s agricultural land. … It will also cause the displacement of many families working in the agricultural field.”

He added that the loss of agricultural land will increase the importation of food, particularly water-intensive crops such as rice, and drive up food prices.

It should be noted that the Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation determined that the area cultivated for rice crops in 2020 is only half of the area planted in 2019.

Former Irrigation Minister Mohamed Nasr Allam told Al-Monitor that the worst issues caused by the GERD will manifest during times of drought. “Ethiopia must allow a greater proportion of water to pass through the GERD to maintain Egypt’s water security, and by extension food security.”

Allam added, “Egypt is currently suffering a food shortage estimated at $10 billion [in import costs]. We must endeavor to keep it from doubling due to the decrease in Egypt’s water share. We also must increase the period of filling the GERD in order to preserve the percentage of water in Lake Nasser behind the High Dam.”

Allam noted, “Egypt should receive its full water share in order to meet the needs of its increasing population and preserve its agricultural areas,” saying Egypt currently receives only half its quota.

The GERD’s storage capacity is an estimated 74 billion cubic meters. If the dam is filled within three years as Ethiopian plans, according to the State Information Service, it will lead to a decrease in Egypt’s water share to 15 billion cubic meters, the loss of about three million feddans of arable lands and the displacement of 5 to 6 million agricultural workers.