The Takeaway: Hamas ‘balloon terror’ sparks conflict on Gaza faultline

Our take:  Hamas may be lighting up the Gaza border to remind Israel and the region that it too can play the role of disrupter and spoiler, including while Israel is rocked by anti-government demonstrations because of its handling of the coronavirus. Hamas has no governance wins to champion with its people, who continue to suffer under the siege, so conflict can divert their attention. Qatar plays a vital role not just in its steady humanitarian assistance to Gaza, but as a potential mediator to de-escalate conflict. Hamas will likely flash the Iran card at some point as well; Tehran was likely consulted before Hamas unleashed the recent balloons and rockets.

Read more:  Ahmad Abu Amer has the take here from Gaza; Rina Bassist has more on Mossad chief Cohen’s alleged contacts with Qatari officials. 

Turkey: Why Turkey is wooing Malta in the Eastern Med

Turkey has been cozying up to Malta, the smallest country in the European Union, another sign of the increased risk of escalation in the eastern Mediterranean stemming from friction between Ankara and Cairo.

Entangled alliances:  Turkey and Egypt are on opposite sides of the hot war in Libya. Turkey is allied with the Libyan Government of National Accord (GNA); Egypt and its allies, including the UAE, France, Saudi Arabia and, to a certain extent, Russia, all back insurgent fighter Khalifa Hifter, whose power base is in the east, near some of the country’s oil fields.

Gas conflict flares up:  The conflict in Libya has spilled into a conflict in the eastern Mediterranean over gas rights. Turkey and the GNA reached an agreement on offshore gas exploration in November 2019 that was rejected by Egypt, Cyprus, Greece and Israel (backed by the EU) as an infringement on their exploration and development rights. Egypt and Greece agreed on a demarcation zone on Aug. 6, which Turkey considered a further escalation, prompting Ankara to announce licenses for seismic research in areas overlapping with the Egyptian-Greek zone, as Diego Cupolo reports here. 

Why Malta?:  Turkey, Libya and Malta have strengthened cooperation in recent weeks. These discussions don’t yet have a military dimension, but that seems to be Turkey’s ultimate intent.  Turkey is at a disadvantage relative to Egyptian naval and air power, and Malta could provide Turkey with a base for power projection into Libya. 

Our take:  Turkey’s alliance with Malta is a flare for the risk of escalation in Libya and the eastern Mediterranean, which are increasingly intertwined because of the conflict between Cairo and Ankara. Until now, however, Malta, a member of the EU, has not committed to a military agreement with Turkey. And Greece has not signed onto a military pact with Egypt. The trend lines nonetheless are in the direction of increased risk of escalation. The Trump administration is seeking to defuse the conflict through what it calls “360-degree diplomacy,” which we explain here.

Read more:  Fehim Tastekin breaks down the implications of the Turkey-Malta alliance here, and Metin Gurcan assesses the militarization and risks of conflict in the eastern Mediterranean here.

Lebanon: Will international donors ‘throw good money after bad’?

Hadley Gamble, CNBC news anchor and international correspondent, said that international donors and creditors complain privately they “have been pouring money down a hole in Lebanon for decades and look where it’s gotten us … nowhere. … Until we see a government that’s not so aligned with Hezbollah, we really don’t see any reason to throw good money after bad.”

More:  Listen to my full podcast interview with Hadley here.

In Case You Missed It: A poem honoring Beirut’s resilience

Lebanon’s unusual and inspirational mix of beauty, tragedy and resilience are often captured more poignantly in more artistic expressions such as poetry and the arts. Here is a passage from a poem by Daria Daniel titled “To You”:

Sweet Soteria, Beirut –

Storms, stones and thunderbolts do not bring you to your knees.

You are a kind and peculiar coastal sanctuary, of ochre light,

Of daily deliverance,

Your custodians, your refugees, your lovers – keep vigil over them.

Because Beirut, you are their beating, (bleeding), mighty heart.

You can read the full poem here.

Al-Monitor welcomes submissions of poetry and other forms of creative expression regarding events and trends in the region.