The Takeaway: Netanyahu faces uphill battle to bring down Israeli coalition government

Leading the news: Netanyahu toppling government a ‘very difficult mission’

Idit Silman, a member of Prime Minister Naftali Bennett‘s own right-wing Yamina party, announced her resignation from the coalition last week, depriving the PM of his razor-thin governing majority and raising the likelihood of a fifth Israeli election in three years.

While not on the brink of collapse, Bennett’s eight-party governing coalition is on shaky footing.

Al-Monitor’s Israel contributors are here to break down what comes next, and whether Bibi can stage a political comeback. 

• Stopping the bleeding: Bennett’s government now holds just 60 of 120 Knesset seats. “Bennett has succeeded in stopping the bleeding,” says Ben Caspit. “The question is, can this government survive for the long term? No one puts money on this possibility because Bennett has to get 61 votes to approve another budget.” (The Knesset has until March 2023 to do so.) 
• On borrowed time?: Bennett’s so-called change coalition “now exists on borrowed time,” says Mazal Mualem. “It will have difficulty operating in the Knesset” without a majority. 
• Testing Ra’am: The other, more likely option, is passing a law to dissolve the Knesset and force fresh elections, which also would require at least 61 votes. Afif Abu Much says the opposition’s six-member predominantly Arab alliance known as the Joint List would likely vote in favor of a new election, “in order to see their rivals from Ra’am fail in their mission to integrate into the coalition.” (Whether Arab voters want elections is another story). 
• Bibi weighs his options: Former PM Benjamin Netanyahu’s conservative Likud party has been trying to convince right-leaning coalition members to defect. Right now, Netanyahu can count on 54 opposition lawmakers voting in favor of a no-confidence measure to bring down the government without new elections. But he’d need to pluck off another seven defectors from Bennett’s coalition to reach 61 votes.  
• Who’s next: After Silman, could other coalition members follow suit? Bennett’s second-in-command, Interior Minister Ayelet Shaked, has reportedly held talks with the Likud party. But she and potential defectors, including Yamina member Nir Orbach, appear to be staying put for now. Netanyahu, however, only needs one crossover to call a new election. 

Bottom line: Even if an election is held and Netanyahu’s party wins the most seats, he would still face an uphill battle in assembling a governing coalition, which he failed to do after the last four inconclusive elections.  

“If you believe this time he could do the unbelievable, he could be the next prime minister within six to nine months,” says Caspit. But getting to 61 is “a very difficult mission.”

From our regional correspondents:

1. Israel seeks measured response to wave of terrorism  

Israeli leaders are looking to contain the violence after a wave of terror attacks across Israel left 13 dead in just three weeks. Prime Minister Naftali Bennett backed down from his initial instinct to order an aggressive military operation on the West Bank’s Jenin refugee camp. But all eyes are now on the Al-Aqsa mosque, which has experienced relative calm since the start of Ramadan but could erupt at any moment. At the urging of regional allies, Bennett has kept open Islam’s third-holiest site, “where any perception of Israeli aggression risks igniting the entire Muslim world,” writes Ben Caspit.   

2. Hamas tells Gaza factions to stand down 

After Israeli special forces killed three Islamic Jihad operatives in the West Bank city of Jenin, Palestinian factions have stepped up their attacks on Israeli forces and settlements in the West Bank. But Hamas is at the same time telling Palestinian factions to stand down in Gaza. A senior source in the militant group told Rasha Abou Jalal that Hamas doesn’t want attacks carried out against Israel from Gaza unless there is consensus from the so-called joint operations room of Palestinian factions. The source said Hamas is working to maintain the Gaza truce brokered by Egypt in May 2021. Islamic Jihad chief Ahmed al-Mudallal, however, warned that if Israeli forces continue to storm the Jenin refugee camp, they should “prepare for the worst from our resistance.” 

3. Erdogan statements shake Tunisia-Turkey ties  

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s criticism of his Tunisian counterpart has created new tensions between the two countries, reports Mohamed Ali Ltifi. Erdogan, who is close to Tunisia’s Muslim Brotherhood-affiliated party, called Tunisian President Kais Saied’s March 30 decision to dissolve his country’s parliament a “coup against the constitution.” Tunis then slammed Ankara’s “unacceptable interference.” 

Erdogan’s Saied comments could backfire, writes Fehim Tastekin. “Erdogan’s criticism of Saied might make things even harder for [parliament speaker Rachid] Ghannouchi, who has been accused of using his role as parliament speaker to collude with Turkey and Qatar.” 

4. Ukraine-Russia war imperils Egypt’s wheat supply

As the Ukraine invasion threatens the global wheat supply, Ukraine and Russia are trading barbs over who is to blame for Egypt’s dwindling stocks. Kiev has accused Moscow of blocking an Egypt-bound ship that was loaded with Ukrainian wheat and remains stuck in the Black Sea port of Chornomorsk. Russia has denied halting shipping traffic and says its naval vessels are ensuring commercial ships have freedom of movement. Mohamed Saied reports that the disruption in wheat supplies could have serious consequences for Egypt, which is the world’s largest wheat importer and relies on Russia and Ukraine for about 80% of its import supply.

5. Egypt fails in bid to film Moon Knight

Ibrahim Ayyad has the back story on why Marvel’s latest TV adaptation scrapped plans to film in Egypt. The Egyptian director behind “Moon Knight,” Mohamed Diab, revealed he struggled to obtain shooting permits in Egypt, where much of the series is set. The production crew was forced to relocate production to Hungary, where they did their best to “reflect a true image of Egypt.” As Ayyad explains, instead of shooting on location in Egypt, foreign filmmakers are increasingly turning to other Middle East countries where there’s less red tape and lower production costs. 

Multimedia this week: Assyrian muralist in Iraq, Turkey’s Ukraine-Russia position 

Listen: Andrew Parasiliti interviews Al-Monitor columnist Kadri Gursel about the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on Turkey, why the S-400 purchase “was doomed to fail,” and Turkey’s policies toward Syria and Saudi Arabia. 
 
Watch: Joe Snell introduces us to an artist who returns to Iraq to paint a mural about her Assyrian heritage.