Will Israel learn from its past leaders when it comes to annexation?

Israeli media chatter has suggested that to avoid Jordanian anger, the annexation will begin with a small phase of some of the highly populated settlements that are stradling the old Green Line separating Israel from the 1967 occupied territories.

Jordan’s King Abdullah slammed that idea in his discussion with members of the US Congress. In a video conference call June 16 with a bipartisan group of members of Congress, the king warned that “any unilateral Israeli measure to annex lands in the West Bank is unacceptable and undermines the prospects of achieving peace and stability in the region.” The emphasis here was on “any” in order to cut off the Israeli possibility of thinking that they can get away with a smaller annexation.

Accepting the invitation shortly before the possibility of Israel deciding on annexation would be politically harmful to Jordan and would give an indirect indication of collusion, which Jordan doesn’t want to give. Al-Monitor has learned that in private meetings with journalists, Jordan’s Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi insisted that the kingdom has done everything it can to send a clear and unambiguous message of rejecting annexation in any form and on any land. A source in Israel told Al-Monitor that this is exactly the same message that Israel had received through a confidential channel it has with Amman.

With the idea of either large or small annexation being rejected by Jordan and most of the world, the Israelis appear to be searching for some kind of a reward to help Netanyahu climb down the tree that he had climbed, or the prime minister might choose to flip over the table and either go for broke and carry out the annexation or call for new elections. Polls show that his opponent’s party has receded in popularity while Netanyahu’s Likud continues to garner high polling percentage.

Daniel Kurtzer, former US ambassador to Cairo, Tel Aviv and Damascus and now a professor at Princeton University, wrote in the June 15 edition of the Cairo review, “Even if annexation does not take place, it will be imperative to avoid a sigh of relief and instead to resume the hard work against occupation and for the two-state solution.”

As has been the case in the past, it seems that the Israeli political establishment will not make a final decision until the very last moment. So far, Netanyahu appears to be holding all the cards very close to his chest and not even revealing the extent of the annexation, and even whether he will go through with it or not until the very last second, in the hope that he can extract the largest price in return for a delay or a retraction.

The move by Jordan to shut down the possibility of a smaller annexation will frustrate the argument of the Blue and White party, which wants any kind of a compromise that will be accepted — even grudgingly — by Arab neighbors and of course by Washington. The way things are moving show that such a compromise is unlikely and we will be faced with a last-minute decision — either the big annexation or none.