Seven years ago, when Benjamin Netanyahu celebrated his 70th birthday, one of the people who came to wish him well him was May Golan – then a Knesset member and now the social equality minister. At the time Netanyahu was the leader of the opposition, having failed to form a coalition after the 2021 election.
Golan ceremoniously proclaimed to Netanyahu that masses of Israelis would leave the country if he weren’t the prime minister. “Young people in Israel don’t see their future and their children’s future in the country if you don’t continue to lead it,” she told him.
Netanyahu was elected for a sixth term as prime minister at the end of 2022 and since 2023, there has been a dramatic increase in the number of Israelis who left the country. This number reached almost 70,000 in 2025, compared to less than 40,000 in 2009-2023, a jump of dozens of percent. The emigrants were primarily young families with children. Concurrently, the number of returning Israelis has fallen to a low not seen in many years.
Researchers at Tel Aviv University warn of a loss of equilibrium and damage that will lead to the collapse of the Israeli economy if the emigration trend continues. They note that while the current situation is not dangerous, it could quickly spiral into an extreme scenario.
According to a forthcoming report on the subject by Prof. Itai Ater of the School of Management, Prof. Netai Bergman, head of the School of Economics, and Doron Zamir of the School of Economics, emigration from Israel is particularly pronounced in several groups: those with a bachelor’s degree or higher, those with degrees in science, engineering or computer science, and doctors.
“The continuation of the emigration trend could lead to a dangerous decline in the stock of skilled human capital available to the Israeli economy, which is the State of Israel’s primary resource,” the report states.
The researchers warn that additional negative shocks could lead to a surge in the number of emigrants. “Every additional emigrant increases the incentive for others to leave, due to the growth of networks of Israeli immigrants abroad and due to the consequences for the Israeli economy, social cohesion and public service. This will have severe macroeconomic consequences,” they write.
‘A stream that will become a flood’
The researchers have been tracking trends in emigration from Israel in recent years. According to the report, the number of Israelis who returned home in 2023-2024 is the lowest since 2009. Israel’s negative migration balance (the number of those leaving minus the number of those returning) is also the highest since 2009.
According to Central Bureau of Statistics definitions, emigrants are defined as Israeli residents who spent 12 full months abroad, with three of those months being consecutive. The researchers excluded from the data new immigrants to Israel who emigrated within three years of making aliyah, thereby nullifying the excuse for the high figures that Netanyahu gave in the Knesset in January when he said that that a large portion of those leaving Israel are immigrants from Ukraine who returned to their country.
According to Central Bureau of Statistics data analyzed in the report, an average of 32,000 Israelis left Israel each year between 2009 and 2019, but in 2023-2024 the number jumped to about 50,000 per year (an increase of more than 50 percent); in 2025 that number reached 69,000. Concurrently, in 2024, the number of returning Israelis fell below 20,000 per year for the first time since 2009. Israel’s negative migration balance rose from an average of 10,500 people in the previous decade examined (2010-2019) to about 30,000 people in 2024 – almost threefold.
An extended analysis by the researchers shows that the emigration rate (emigrants per 1,000 people in the population) of those who have a higher education (bachelor’s degree or higher), doctors, engineers and those with science degrees almost doubled between 2019 and 2024, and increased at a faster rate than the increase in the emigration rate in the general population.
While the emigration rate in the general population increased 1.74-fold during these years, it increased 1.75-fold among doctors, 1.87-fold among those with a bachelor’s degree, 1.9-fold among engineers, and almost doubled among those with technological qualifications. According to another publication by the researchers from September, close to 1,400 doctors left Israel in 2023-2025 – almost double the number from the corresponding period a decade earlier (2013-2015).
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“The great concern stems from the fact that the people leaving are Israel’s best human capital, who contribute to society and to the economy,” Ater says. “If the trend is not stopped, this stream will become a flood that will endanger Israel’s ability to exist as an independent and advanced state.”
“We know of countries like Turkey, Iran, Russia, Venezuela and South Africa that have undergone similar processes and have not managed to recover,” Ater adds. “In Israel, there is also a large, unskilled ultra-Orthodox group that doesn’t study the core curriculum and puts Israel’s ability to survive a large wave of emigration of skilled Israelis at risk. As a country that relies on high-tech, our greatest resource is human capital. A large emigration rate will also harm security, not just the economy.”
“This is not just about the brain drain and the weakening of research and development, but also a real blow to the country’s security and resilience,” says Prof. David Harel, president of the National Academy of Sciences. “Israel’s scientific and technological capabilities in engineering, cybersecurity and computer science are a vital component of national security, from the development of advanced defense systems to Israel’s cyber capabilities.”
The Tel Aviv University researchers say the increase in the number of Israelis who left was already noticeable in the third quarter of 2023 – before the October 7 massacre. According to Ater, it’s still too early to determine whether the end of the Gaza war led to a decrease in the number of emigrants or an increase in the number of returnees. “The election is a pivotal event,” he says. “For many people, the results will influence the decision of whether to leave or to stay.”
Young people, families with children
The researchers say a particularly significant change occurred among young families. The main increase in emigration rates was among adults aged 35 to 45 and children aged 0-14 – families with children. The emigration rate in these groups almost doubled.
High-income earners are more prominent among emigrants from Israel. The share of highest earners (in the upper third) among emigrants increased from 24.5 percent in 2009 to 33.5 percent in 2024; close to half of those leaving earned above the median wage. The researchers noted, however, that education and skillset predict emigration more than income.
“The loss of high-value human capital has a real economic cost,” the report states. According to an Israel Tax Authority report published this year, the loss of tax revenue from emigration increased from half a billion shekels ($161 million in today’s dollars) in 2019 to 1.2 billion shekels in 2024. If the emigration trend continues, the tax loss is expected to reach 3.5 billion shekels per year within five years.