A way forward for the United States and Turkey

Consequently, we might suggest an alternative approach focused on a regional rather than a bilateral agenda — specifically, a possible road map for US-Turkish cooperation focused on a regional security and weapons of mass destruction (WMD) nonproliferation agenda. This could be a critical issue for regional stability and an area with multiple looming crisis points in the months and years ahead. In principle, it may also be an area where there is common interest in preventing the further spread of chemical, biological and nuclear weapons in the Middle East. Indeed, despite continued Turkish-Iranian economic ties and Turkey’s political engagement with Iran through forums like the Astana process, Turkey continues to be wary of Iranian intentions and supports the Iran nuclear deal. Turkey opposes the capability of Iran to acquire nuclear weapons because of the threat this would pose to regional stability. Similarly, Turkey adamantly opposes the chemical attacks by Syria’s Bashar al-Assad regime. This could provide a foundation for a cooperative regional agenda with the United States, working with international forums, despite the general friction in the bilateral relationship.

While the pandemic caused the postponement of the 10th review conference of the nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) until early 2021, remote consultations and planning have already started. The year 2020 also marks the 50th anniversary of the NPT regime’s entry into force. The 1995 NPT review conference not only resulted in the indefinite extension of the treaty but also called for the “establishment of an effectively verifiable Middle East zone free of weapons of mass destruction, nuclear, chemical and biological, and their delivery systems.”

Despite consultations and efforts to establish an agenda for a WMD free zone in the Middle East, a consensus was not reached at the last review conference in 2015. At a time when arms control regimes are under strain due to great power competition, member states could have a common cause to focus on Article IV of the NPT, i.e., the peaceful uses of nuclear energy and international cooperation under the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The focus on keeping nonproliferation norms relevant to the growing energy needs and civilian nuclear plans is likely to generate interest and regional buy-in. As the United Arab Emirates recently operationalized its first nuclear power plant, many others, including Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt and Turkey, are looking to follow.

While Turkey is embarking on a nuclear energy program with Russia at the Akkuyu site, the fact that it will not pursue the nuclear fuel cycle and enrichment can address nonproliferation concerns if the project proceeds in a transparent manner. The United States and Turkey already have the “123 Agreement” for peaceful nuclear cooperation under agreed nonproliferation controls. The 2008 agreement has an initial term of 15 years due in 2023, with a provision for automatic renewal in five-year increments.

To bypass political deadlocks, under the NPT review conference umbrella, the United States and Turkey have a common interest in the continued facilitation and convening of dialogue with regional parties on tailored confidence-building measures and technical cooperation through the IAEA. Building on this framework, as well as the upcoming first review conference for the amended Convention on the Physical Protection of Nuclear Material in 2021, one area to collaborate on could be establishing a regional information-sharing mechanism for regionalizing the IAEA nuclear security resources on best practices in combatting terrorist access and insider threats.

These are tough days for Turkey’s future in the Western alliance. But a long-term approach that looks beyond the current leadership and identifies openings for cooperation and engagement in the future when strategic conditions and political orientations may change could help. Building on this shared interest in WMD proliferation in an active conflict region and reinforcing norms for the peaceful use of nuclear energy may help alleviate the myriad tensions in US-Turkish relations and provide a foundation for improved relations in the future. It may also have the added benefit of advancing stability in a region on the brink.